FX COT is reported on currency futures, not spot pairs. For USD-base pairs such as USD/JPY, USD/CAD, and USD/CHF, futures-currency strength translates inversely to the spot pair.
EUR futures map directly to EUR/USD because EUR/USD is USD-quoted.
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Weekly Outlook Summary
Loading weekly context...
Manual structureNot assessed
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Structure Requirement
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Watch Conditions
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Risk / Caution
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Show Detailed PlaybookWhy it matters
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Current COT Report
COT Report View
Raw participant positioning from the selected CFTC report, followed by derived net-flow context.
COT Report DateUnavailable
This table shows raw CFTC report fields and derived net context. Net = Long - Short. Display-only groups such as Other Reportables and Nonreportables are informational unless explicitly used by the locked model. Delta 4W and Delta 12W are net-position lookback changes, not the same as raw weekly long/short row changes.
12-Week COT Report History
Recent COT Reports
Latest report dates retained in browser memory for the selected market. This is display-only report context and does not change the locked COT model.
Selected ReportUnavailable
Recent reports are loaded from the same CFTC rows used by the selected market refresh. They are not stored, scheduled, or used to alter phase, confidence, diagnostics, playbook, charts, or Cross Context.
Definitions & Legend
This dashboard describes COT positioning, participation, and context. These labels describe flow and market context only. They are not direct buy/sell signals.
Flow Descriptors
Net Exposure Increasing
A participant's net position increased over the 4-week lookback. This means that participant became more net long or less net short over that period.
Net Exposure Decreasing
A participant's net position decreased over the 4-week lookback. This means that participant became less net long or more net short over that period.
Participation Expanding
Open Interest increased over the 4-week lookback. This means the total number of open contracts increased, showing broader participation. It does not mean more buyers only or more sellers only.
Participation Contracting
Open Interest decreased over the 4-week lookback. This means the total number of open contracts fell, showing participation is contracting. It does not mean only buyers or only sellers are leaving.
Divergence Active
Divergence is active when Producer/Merchant and Managed Money 4-week direction disagree for at least two consecutive weeks. This indicates conflicting participant flow and can signal developing contextual tension.
Divergence Inactive
Divergence is inactive when Producer/Merchant and Managed Money 4-week direction are not in sustained conflict.
Important Note
These labels describe participant flow, positioning, and participation. They are context descriptors only and should not be read as direct trade instructions.
Phase Legend
Phases describe the current COT context. They do not generate timing signals by themselves.
Compression
Positioning is compressed or constrained and directional context is weak or unclear. This is the lowest-quality environment for actioning COT context and often maps to a No Trade state.
Transition
Positioning is shifting, but directional context is still developing. The market may be moving from one state into another, but structure confirmation remains important.
Accumulation
Positioning suggests bullish context is building. This does not mean immediate upside timing; it means bullish positioning pressure is developing in the background.
Distribution
Positioning suggests bearish context is building. This does not mean immediate downside timing; it means bearish positioning pressure is developing in the background.
Expansion
Directional positioning pressure is already moving with stronger follow-through. This is a more developed context state than Transition, but timing still depends on structure.
Institutional Accumulation
Asset Manager / Institutional positioning is building from a low or high percentile area while Leveraged Funds have not yet fully crowded the move. This is FX-specific institutional positioning context, not a trade signal.
Speculative Expansion
Asset Manager / Institutional and Leveraged Funds are moving in the same direction while Open Interest is expanding. This means institutional and speculative flow are aligned with participation increasing. Timing still depends on structure.
Crowded Positioning
Leveraged Funds positioning is at an extreme and is no longer expanding in that direction. Directional bias is only assigned when Asset Manager / Institutional flow confirms the unwind; otherwise the phase remains Neutral.
Neutral
Current COT positioning does not provide a strong directional contextual edge.
Bias Legend
Bullish Watch
Bullish context is present, but this is not a buy signal. Traders should still wait for structure-based timing.
Bearish Watch
Bearish context is present, but this is not a sell signal. Traders should still wait for structure-based timing.
Neutral
No strong bullish or bearish contextual edge is currently present.
Confidence Legend
Confidence describes the quality of alignment in the locked system. It is not a forecast certainty score.
High
The strongest alignment among the locked confidence drivers is present.
Moderate
Partial alignment is present, but not all locked confidence drivers are fully aligned.
Low
Only weak alignment is present. The contextual edge is limited.
No Trade
The current contextual state is not suitable for actioning. This is not directional and should not be interpreted as bullish or bearish.
The current locked confidence scale is: High / Moderate / Low / No Trade. Do not display Very High or Very Low.
FX/TFF Legend
Asset Manager / Institutional
Institutional positioning context for TFF currency futures.
Leveraged Funds
Speculative and macro fund positioning context for TFF currency futures.
Dealer / Intermediary
Displayed as context only and not used in phase, confidence, or divergence calculations.
Spot-Pair Translation
Currency futures bias is translated to the canonical spot pair. USD-quoted pairs map directly, while USD-base pairs invert the futures-currency context.
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Positioning Context
Shows whether each participant's net position increased or decreased over the 4-week lookback.
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Flow & Change
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Divergence Tracker
Divergence compares the selected primary participant groups' 4-week direction.
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Open Interest
Open Interest tracks total open contracts, not buyer-only or seller-only activity.
Live cross context loads both market snapshots from CFTC data on request. It remains context-only and does not create a trade signal.
No cross context loaded.
Weekly COT Interpretation
Directional Bias Background
COT-only interpretation of participant-flow pressure for the selected market. Choose a market in this workspace without returning to the Market Dashboard.
Interpretation Market
Selected Market--
COT Report DateUnavailable
Generated FromCurrent COT output
Loaded AtUnavailable
Choose a market to generate the weekly COT interpretation.